Israel’s war on Gaza will likely end with a diplomatic compromise, which would weaken Hamas. This would, in turn, weaken other Iran-backed groups in the Middle East. There is widespread concern about the war between Israel and Hamas spilling over into Lebanon, but so far, Hezbollah’s reaction has been measured. But this is not because Hezbollah is scheming, the way Hamas did before its surprise attack on Israel on 7 October. As Israel continues to assassinate one Hezbollah officer after another, the question of how Hezbollah will respond becomes increasingly important. The war began at a time when the Lebanese…

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