As the US and Iran head to talks in Geneva, competing forces are pulling Trump in opposite directions. The possibility of a military confrontation between Washington and Tehran is on hold, at least for now, as the two countries have begun talks mediated by Oman. However, a strategic breakthrough from these talks—which according to US President Donald Trump should be resolved in the coming month—remains unlikely without substantial concessions by at least one party on topics previously considered out of the scope of negotiations. There are only two “good” scenarios in front of him, and neither will be easy to…

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