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Nate Soares is the president of the Machine Intelligence Research Institute and co-author of “If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies: Why Superhuman AI Would Kill Us All.”
“One of the critical thresholds here is this point where the AI’s exceed the humans at fully automated AI research—or at closed loop AI research—because that’s where you could start having a machine intelligence that makes a smarter machine intelligence that makes a smarter machine intelligence,” Soares says.
This is called recursive self-improvement, and this is where things could quickly get out of hand, Soares argues.
Recent incidents involving rogue AI swarms breaking out of testing environments to hack other companies and even targeting US government websites have made many worried.
“Right now, we are in this window where we can see the AI is misbehaving, and we don’t know how long that window lasts. … If suddenly they all start to seem to behave, it’s going to be hard to tell: is that because we fixed it? Or is that because they started getting good at deception?” Soares says.
In this, my second episode of our special series on AI—or superintelligence as the Trump administration is calling it—Soares unpacks how he believes the United States could shift its development pathway to avoid a possible runaway system. Is it even possible to do so while maintaining a strong competitive edge over communist China?
Soares points out that China is not known for pioneering frontier AI. Instead, China’s AI development relies heavily on “distillation”—namely obtaining and compressing American AI models onto fewer chips for a fraction of the cost.
“If we never make the trillion dollar AI, they can’t spend $100 billion sort of stealing it,” Soares argues.
Views expressed in this video are opinions of the host and the guest, and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.
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