What Can Russia Realistically Achieve in Ukraine?

Another build up of Russian troops on Ukraine’s borders has caused its customary alarm, and more worryingly resulted in the deaths of two Ukrainian soldiers in isolated skirmishes. Yet what Russia hopes to achieve by its latest vulgar display of power remains a matter of speculation. Most predictions fall within two camps: Those who believe that this is the prelude to a general invasion of greater Ukraine, to be followed by the country’s occupation, Others that assert this is simply how Vladimir Putin conducts diplomacy in the near abroad. Those in the latter category point to President Putin’s innate caution,…